Year in Review 2011

Posted on by Pat

Basic Facts:

105 sales in the MLS (plus numerous trustee sales to investors that are not in MLS)

  • $98 / square foot
  • List Price to Sales Price Ratio: 97%
  • 325k average list price (at end of year)
  • 238k average sales price
  • 106 Days On Market average (but several outliers weaken this as a measurement)
  • 6 homes sold over 500k (highest sale at 700k) this is a low number, historically

Well, Val Vista Lakes data for the year 2011 is in the can. Much of what has made Val Vista Lakes a choice for buyers remained in place this year, namely the clubhouse, and the location. Not included in this data would be the fairly sizable number of trustee sales where investors bought the homes directly from the bank. Many of these homes DID end up as listed properties, most often after a renovation. This is a valuable function of a healthy market – investors saying that they believe in the market, and voting with their wallet. And, many buyers love the idea of having an updated home in an established family area like Val Vista Lakes. For the next year at least, there should always be at least 1 or 2 Fix & Flips available for buyers to add to their home search checklist. Short sales also are an important & large chunk of the market. Many banks have streamlined their short sale operations, and they are not the Shawshank Tube they used to be. Normal (equity) sales are also present, but are normally at the higher end of the price range (per sq ft). The sales prices have stabilized around the $98 per sq ft point. One year earlier, this number was $110, but at a point early in 2011, it was even lower than $98. Hopefully, the lowest interest rates in decades make for the perfect recipe of buyer interest turning into closed sales. A gently improving market is healthiest for everyone…

The community is in fine shape else-wise. The HOA has sufficient money in the bank, and zero debt. The usual issues that confront a 27 year old community face ours here as well. Fortunately, we have a good group of residents to draw from to volunteer as board members. They’ve done a good job. We have the best Executive Director that an HOA could have, in Richard Andrews. He is well liked, and makes wise business decisions. Most communities can only dream of having what we have here~~

Shameless Plug Dept. – For 25 years now, and 23 as a resident, Patrick Harfst has represented buyers & sellers in Val Vista Lakes. He has his finger on the pulse of this community day in, day out. If you are interested in Val Vista Lakes real estate as either a buyer or seller, contact Pat to see how you might best work together to meet your goals.

Merry Christmas to all!

Posted on by Pat

The 6 weeks of celebrating hits it’s second high note of the season today, with Christmas, and it’s assorted origins, taking center stage. We started with Thanksgiving ~ the original American holiday ~ and conclude with New Year’s Eve in 6 days.

If you are reading this, it is likely that you were born in the United States, in the second half of the 20th century. That, by any historical measure, is truly having won the All Mankind Lottery. Congratulations to us!! But, remember, it is a big world, and we are just players. Have fun, but stay sane, and take an equal chunk of time to reflect on the good fortune we have, just by waking up each day at this time in history. It’s a good life!

Even the brightest candle burns out…

Posted on by Pat

In this life, few things are as monumentally important as giving life. If you are reading this, it is a fair bet that a mother somewhere gave you life… A mother carried you, birthed you, nurtured you, and (hopefully) taught you how to grow up… The only thing that we can do for someone else that even comes close to giving them life, is helping them cross that invisible threshold at the other end of life… to help someone die. Last week, I had the honor of being there for my own mother as she crossed that finish line… My face was the last thing she saw. I’m glad it worked that way – that she had one of the few remaining faces she recognized, right there, as she left to join her husband.

She was an incredible woman, and the lessons learned at her side (as a boy), and as part of her orbit (as an adult), will stay on as long as I draw breath… Raised on a farm during the depression, she went on to an academic career that saw her obtain a Doctorate in English literature, then teaching on the college level for many years. She raised three kids who seem to have turned out just fine… Was she perfect? No – no one is… But she had a heart that was open to everyone, and a smile that never wavered. She loved books & plants, and these attributes continue on in her kids and grandkids. Way too late, we learned that she and her husband (my father) were never apart for more than 2 days their entire 59 years of marriage. That would have been something to share with us, dad & mom!

Dan Navarro & Eric Lowen recorded a song about the dying process, called “Crossing Over”. It was written by Dan as he helped his mother in her final days. If you get a chance, that song is worth “dropping the needle on” as it very perfectly sets the mood that one encounters as we help another soul “cross over”. Google Lowen & Navarro, and the song is on the Pendulum album…

I feel so very lucky to have been raised by such a set of parents as Betsy & Ernie… They were great! Their own candles have burned out, but the light they broadcast to their friends and family is still reflected in each of us who knew them…

That’s all I have for now…

A Note About Mom

Posted on by Pat

Betsy Harfst had a birthday today… She is 83. Sadly, her memory only made it to about 75. Betsy is my dear mother. She has Alzheimer’s, and while she remains pleasant to those around her, her memory is an empty box. She actually said that to me today – her memories of childhood, of her first real birthday party, her first bicycle, her first kiss – all are “in a box, put away somewhere…” This saddens me on one level, as she, and so many like her, are residents of care facilities, and having those memories, like a box of cherished photographs to look at, would make the long days seem a bit more tolerable. As it is, time has devolved into a few simple building blocks; there is “before breakfast”, there is “after breakfast”, there is “before lunch”, and, well, you get the picture. These folks have little need for clocks or watches – a sundial would do just fine.

This lack of memory is also a good thing, for some folks. We humans, besides having developed opposable thumbs, have a memory that far surpasses most (all?) other life forms. We have the ability to recall just about everything that we have ever seen, heard, tasted, smelled, thought, dreamed, or experienced in any manner. We can even make incredibly involved plans for the future…  Not sure even dolphins can do that!

This concept of memory needed a measuring tool, so man invented time. It was inevitable, one might assume, given the curiosity inherent in the higher developed mammals. We can’t help but wonder what is over the next hill… But, having a memory that recalls everything? Good AND bad? Is that what we desire?  There seems to be a mechanism in place to help us cope with bad things that happen to us – we “wall off” the event to keep that memory from leaking out and popping up when we are otherwise enjoying a perfectly happy moment. Ask a trauma survivor what they recall from the actual event, and most of the time, they have no recollection – the brain has put that memory in a different place, or perhaps tagged it differently, but that memory is not there to interfere with the the recovery. Alzheimer’s might be like that concept, with a broken valve, so ALL of the memories are locked away, not just the bad ones…

My mother was highly educated, received a doctorate in English literature, and taught at the college level for 20+ years. Yet now, none of these memories are available to her to roll over in her mind, to share with others, or to pass on the grandchildren. Her memory has fallen down, and can’t get up.

So, like the brain that seeks to protect itself from bad memories, we take care of these folks with every ounce of love and dignity that we can. We protect them from the ugliness of everyday living as infirm, aged, and in-the-way. Memory is a gift, yet we take it for granted. And when it is gone, there is little we can do to replace it. If these simple written words cause you to reach out to an elderly relative, neighbor, or friend, and seek to engage them in a little game of “Remember When?”, I can promise that you will be better off for doing so.

Wisdom is there for the taking in “old people”. Most are more than happy to share that wisdom. It’s a good trade – you give them some time, they give you some wisdom… Just remember to do it before either you, or they, forget!

 

Update December 13th, 2011 – Betsy left us today to go join her late husband Ernie. It was very serene – she waited until I got there, said a few words, then closed her eyes for one last time. No more pain and confusion – her spirit has flown, and I am so lucky to have been there. I’ve got to believe that made it easier for her…

If I Were the Commissioner of Real Estate

Posted on by Pat

If I were to awaken tomorrow as the commissioner of real estate – all of it – what would I change? Lots of things… For starters, I want a new set of rules.

  1. Raise the entry gate. No, I’m not engaging in the “pull up the ladder now that I’m on board” tactic. I’ve been licensed 22 years. But I DO see way too many agents who are under-educated about what is required to actually be a GOOD agent. Quantity is too high, and education too low, so I’ll require licensees to have at least a 2 year degree in a business discipline, PLUS attend specific classes related to the actual operation of a real estate business. Enough of the “how many acres in a quarter section?” questions. The effect of this new rule will be fewer agents, and much better prepared & educated agents. The consumers will benefit, our profession will benefit, and the world will still turn.
  2. Raise the renewal requirements. This follows on Rule #1 in that agents will now have to continue to stay on top of the changes sweeping over the industry. Many do this now, but many more do just the minimum hours per year to stay fresh. Please do not tell me that 1 hour per month of continuing education is sufficient! New Rule #2 – Back To School for at least 3 hours per month. 36 hours per year is not going to wear anyone out.
  3. Do some business, or get out! We have agents who do 1 or 2 sales per year. Throw in 1 or 2 listings per year, and these folks are barely getting by. Like a triage unit, the New Rule #3 will mandate a minimum level of closed sales. This can be measured both in quantity or dollar volume. For those that fail to make the cut, or for those who primarily are self-dealers, there will be a safety net. Just as we now have Brokers Licenses & Agents Licenses, new rule #3 creates a Temporary License. It can be renewed, but would serve to alert the public that the agent they are dealing with is either a self-dealer or a part-timer. The public needs to know these things!
  4. Mandatory apprenticeship. Not for years, but for at least 6 months. All new agents must spend some time learning along side the veterans. This is not a new concept, as almost every other true profession utilizes the apprentice program. Let’s also require any document prepared by these new agents to be reviewed and initialed by the veteran agent and/or the managing broker. So many simple mistakes are made that are clearly avoidable by simple review. Again, the consumers benefit.

These are rules that a commissioner has control over, and while changes often require legislative action, these would be on my Action List as commissioner. The future of the industry is in the balance these days, and these new rules are long over due.

Time to go do something fun…

Val Vista Lakes – Return to Normal?

Posted on by Pat

  It is late in the year 2011. Val Vista Lakes, like much of the rest of the valley of the sun, has been hit hard by a decline in property values. Many families have lost their homes, cast like driftwood onto the ragged shoreline of corruption borne of too-big-to-fail banks and their sock-puppet politicians. These families made good faith home-buying decisions in the early and middle part of the past decade (aughts? do we have a name for this lost decade yet?). These folks did nothing wrong, unless not having perfect future vision is a fault. This author recalls hearing from his grandfather some startling stories about the 1930’s, and how the meltdown of the economy then was a carefully played out dance of (surprise, surprise) huge banks and crooked politicians. He had a small fortune when that depression started, and much much less when it ended… even lost an arm in a farming accident. So yes, that depression took a lot out of some very good people. It seems the more things change, the more they stay the same…

But, what about Val Vista Lakes, today? How has our community fared as the “recovery” tries to gather some steam? Well, it seems that things are moving in the right direction… With overall MLS inventory of homes WAY DOWN, it makes sense that we should be doing better… and the results confirm this… We have just 24 homes ON the market right now, with 15 in escrow, and 93 closed sales year to date. Digging inside the numbers, we find more good news – the number of “distressed” homes (those either being sold via the short sale route, or already taken back by the bank) is down to just 5 homes. In recent years, this number was much higher than “5 out of 24”… We also find that 6 homes are either Flips, or Fix & Flips. This is healthy, as it represents a vote of confidence by an investor, that things are moving in the right direction. We then have 13 homes that are “normal” for-sale listings. 13 of 24 is healthy, and many would call this a return to normal…  One bit of caution is in order here – Val Vista Lakes also currently has somewhere over 20 homes in the foreclosure pipeline. Some may be “saved” by the current owners, but the rest will become either Flips, Rentals, or Repo listings. More carnage on the real estate highway… And so it goes…

Patrick Harfst has been a resident of Val Vista Lakes for 23 years, and has served the community as a board member both in the 90’s and the “aughts”. His family was raised right here in the community, and he publishes a Weekly Update of VVL activity every Friday at www.ArizonaHomeLocator.com